The political economy of tax reforms: An empirical analysis of new German data

Dr. Gerrit B. Koester

doi:10.5771/9783845216096

Summary

Was bestimmt die Steuerpolitik? Welche Ziele verfolgen die Bundesregierungen bei Steuerreformen? Haben Steuererhöhungen und Steuersenkungen einen Einfluss auf die Wahlergebnisse? Auf der Basis eines neuen Datensatzes zu den fiskalischen Effekten von Steuerreformen im Zeitraum von 1964 bis 2004 zeigt das Werk Muster der Steuerpolitik auf und testet zentrale ökonomische Hypothesen. Dabei zeigt sich, dass normative ökonomische Ansätze kaum einen Erklärungsbeitrag für die zu beobachtende Steuerpolitik leisten können.

Ausgehend von wichtigen polit-ökonomischen Theorien zeigt der Autor, dass die Mehrheitskonstellationen im Bundesrat einen wichtigen Einfluss auf die Steuerpolitik haben, allerdings genau umgekehrt wie von der Blockade-Hypothese behauptet: Steuerreformen sind gemessen an ihren Fiskaleffekten bei gegenläufigen Mehrheiten in Bundestag und Bundesrat häufiger und umfangreicher. Des Weiteren gibt es keine Hinweise darauf, dass die parteipolitische Zusammensetzung der Bundesregierung einen wichtigen Einfluss auf Steuerreformen hat. Wahltaktische Terminierungen von Steuerreformen spielen aber sehr wohl eine wichtige Rolle. Eine Auswertung des Zusammenhangs von Steuerreformen und Wahlergebnissen zeigt allerdings, dass die Versuche der Bundesregierungen, ihre Wiederwahlwahrscheinlichkeit durch Steuersenkungen kurz vor der Wahl zu erhöhen, wenig erfolgreich sind: Nicht nur die Jahre unmittelbar vor den Wahlterminen, sondern die Steuerpolitik in der gesamten Legislaturperiode hat einen Einfluss auf die Bundestagswahlergebnisse der regierenden Parteien.

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Bibliographic data

Edition: 1/2009
Copyright Year: 2009
ISBN-Print: 978-3-8329-4131-4
ISBN-Online: 978-3-8452-1609-6
Publisher: Nomos, Baden-Baden
Series: Neue Studien zur Politischen Ökonomie
Volume: 5
Language: English
Pages: 185
Product Type: Monograph

Titelei/Inhaltsverzeichnis No access Pages 2 - 16
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Introduction No access Pages 17 - 18
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1. The German tax system – overview No access Pages 19 - 21
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2. Historical roots of the German tax system No access Pages 21 - 22
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3. 1. Development of the revenue structure No access Pages 22 - 24
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  2. Development of the German tax system in international perspective No access Pages 24 - 29
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  3. Important trends in the development of the German tax system No access Pages 29 - 32
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4. The relationship of social security contributions and taxation No access Pages 32 - 35
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5. Summary No access Pages 35 - 35
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1. Empirical approaches to the analysis of tax policy No access Pages 36 - 38
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2. A new data-set on tax reforms in Germany No access Pages 38 - 40
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3. Reliability of the data No access Pages 40 - 47
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4. Summary No access Pages 47 - 47
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1. 1. The role of reunification and temporary measures No access Pages 48 - 50
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  2. New regulations by fiscal effects No access Pages 50 - 51
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  3. Timing of reforms No access Pages 51 - 52
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  4. Increases, reductions and reform intensity in the main taxes No access Pages 52 - 55
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  5. Summary of findings No access Pages 55 - 56
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    1. Current Regulation (2007) No access
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    2. Tax reforms No access
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    3. The pattern of tax reforms in the wage and income tax No access
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    4. Linking fiscal effects of reforms and revenue developments No access
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    1. Corporate profit tax – current regulation (2007) No access
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    2. Corporate profit tax – reforms No access
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    3. Local trade tax – current regulation (2007) No access
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    4. Local trade tax – reforms No access
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    5. Reforms based on the new data-set No access
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    6. Linking fiscal effects of reforms and revenue developments No access
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    1. Value-added tax – current regulation (2007) No access
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    2. Value-added tax – history and reforms No access
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    3. Fiscal effects of reforms and revenue developments No access
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    1. Current regulation (2007) No access
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    2. Mineral oil and tobacco taxes – rates, reforms and revenue development No access
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      1. The local real estate tax – current regulation No access
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      2. The real estate transfer tax – current regulation No access
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      3. The inheritance and gift tax – current regulation No access
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      1. Reforms of standard values No access
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      2. The real estate tax No access
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      3. The real estate acquisition tax No access
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      4. The inheritance and gift tax No access
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      5. The net wealth tax No access
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    3. Fiscal effects of reforms and revenue developments No access
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  6. Summary No access Pages 84 - 85
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3. Excursus: Macroeconomic development in Germany 1950-2005 No access Pages 85 - 88
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1. 1. Capital mobility, international tax competition and tax policy No access Pages 89 - 93
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  2. The influence of tax competition on tax policy – evidence from tax rates and tax burdens No access Pages 93 - 96
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  3. The influence of tax competition on tax policy No access Pages 96 - 97
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      1. General approach No access
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      2. Hypotheses No access
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      1. General approach No access
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      2. Hypotheses No access
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      1. Revenues, expenditure and deficits No access
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      2. Tests based on annual data No access
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      3. Tests based on legislative periods No access
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    1. General approach and hypotheses No access
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    2. Empirical tests of tax reforms as reaction to cold progression No access
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  3. Tax smoothing No access Pages 109 - 109
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  4. Summary of findings No access Pages 109 - 110
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      1. Historical development of the German financial constitution before 1950 No access
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        Tax revenue assignment No access
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        Legislative Competencies in tax policy No access
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        The current tax policy process No access
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        Implications for our study of the political economy of taxation No access
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    2. Political development No access
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    3. The role of the constitutional court No access
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    4. The role of the EU No access
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    5. Summary No access
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  2. Polit-economic approaches to tax policy – overview No access Pages 124 - 126
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    1. General approach and related literature No access
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    2. Hypotheses No access
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    3. Empirical analysis No access
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    1. General approach No access
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    2. Hypotheses No access
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    3. Empirical analysis No access
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    1. General approach and related literature No access
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    2. Hypotheses No access
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    3. Empirical analysis No access
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    4. Summary of results No access
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    1. General approach and related literature No access
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    2. Hypotheses on partisan interests and tax reforms in Germany No access
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    3. Empirical analysis No access
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    4. Summary of results No access
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    1. General approach and related literature No access
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    2. Hypotheses No access
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    3. Empirical analysis No access
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    4. Summary of results No access
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  8. Combined testing of different approaches No access Pages 151 - 153
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  9. Summary No access Pages 153 - 154
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    1. Economic voting and tax policy No access
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    2. Economic voting and tax reforms – hypotheses No access
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    1. The independent variable – changes in the vote No access
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    2. Empirical analysis of the influence of tax policy on voting No access
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  3. Summary No access Pages 165 - 165
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Summary and conclusion No access Pages 166 - 168
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Bibliography No access Pages 169 - 185
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