Quantitative Intelligence Analysis

Edward Waltz

doi:10.5771/9781442235878

Summary

Quantitative Intelligence Analysis describes the model-based method of intelligence analysis that represents the analyst’s mental models of a subject, as well as the analyst’s reasoning process exposing what the analyst believes about the subject, and how they arrived at those beliefs and converged on analytic judgments. It includes:

Specific methods of explicitly representing the analyst’s mental models as computational models;
dynamic simulations and interactive analytic games;
the structure of an analyst’s mental model and the theoretical basis for capturing and representing the tacit knowledge of these models explicitly as computational models detailed description of the use of these models in rigorous, structured analysis of difficult targets;
model illustrations and simulation descriptions;
the role of models in support of collection and operations;
case studies that illustrate a wide range of intelligence problems;
And a recommended curriculum for technical analysts.

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Bibliographic data

Copyright year: 2014
ISBN-Print: 978-0-8108-9546-1
ISBN-Online: 978-1-4422-3587-8
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield, Lanham
Language: English
Pages: 282
Product type: Book Titles

1. Table of Contents No access
2. List of Figures No access
3. List of Tables No access
4. Foreword No access
5. Preface No access
1. Models in Intelligence and Policy No access
2. The Tools of Synthesis No access
3. The Organization of this Book No access
1. Using Models to Understand Systems No access
2. Using Models to Enable Analytic Collaboration No access
3. Using Models to Explain Analytic Judgment No access
4. Challenges to the Use of Models No access
5. Determinism, Causality, and Prediction No access
6. Case Study: Understanding Terrorist Organization No access
7. Summary No access
1. Models of Thinking No access
2. Mental Models as Artifacts of Thinking No access
3. Intelligence Analysts and Their Mental Models No access
1. Framing and Representing an Intelligence Problem No access
2. Tacit-Explicit Capture and Interaction No access
3. The Tacit-Explicit Translation Process No access
4. Understanding Mental Models and Cognitive Processes to Enhance Analytic Rigor No access
1. Structured and Quantitative Analysis No access
2. First, a Caution No access
3. Explicit Models in the Analytic Process No access
4. The Explicit Modeling Process No access
5. Case Study: An Example of the Explicit Modeling Process No access
6. Summary No access
1. Expressing Analytic Thought in Explicit Models No access
2. Modeling the Concepts that Precede Analysis No access
3. Modeling in Counterfactual Reasoning No access
4. Modeling in Convergent Reasoning from Evidence to Inference No access
5. Modeling Comparative Reasoning about Alternative Hypotheses No access
6. Integrating Target and Analysis Models No access
1. Models of Data and Models of Theory No access
2. Models and Model Prediction in Intelligence No access
3. Abstracting Real Target Systems No access
4. The Validity of Models No access
5. Descriptive Models in Analysis No access
6. Exploratory and Predictive Simulations in Analysis No access
7. Case Study: Simulating a Physical System No access
8. Simulating Human Systems No access
9. Case Study: Civilian Population Responses to Sanctions No access
10. Hybrid Modeling Socio-Technical Systems No access
11. Case Study: Model-based support to Planning: Joint Intelligence Preparation of the Operational Environment (JIPOE) No access
12. Methodology and Technology Challenges No access
1. Principles of Gaming and Categories of Games No access
2. Analytic Games in Intelligence No access
3. The Game Process No access
4. Incorporating Computational Models and Simulations in Analytic Games No access
5. Case Study: Conducting Analytic Games to Support Intelligence No access
6. CRYSTALLINE No access
7. VERTIGO No access
8. Analytic Games to Enhance Work-Group Effectiveness No access
1. Model-Based Approaches to ISR Collection Support for Physical Target Systems No access
2. Model-Based Approaches to Support Activity-Based Intelligence (ABI) for Human Target Systems No access
3. Case Study: Model-Based Collection Support No access
4. Hypothesis Testing Analytic Method No access
5. The Future Role of Models and Simulations in Joint Intelligence Operations No access
1. Implementing Modeling Capabilities No access
2. Teaching Modeling, Gaming, and Simulation No access
3. Partnering with the DoD Modeling, Gaming, and Simulation Community No access
Appendix A—Glossary No access Pages 251 - 258
Appendix B—A Course in Modeling, Simulation, and Analytic Gaming for Intelligence No access Pages 259 - 276
Index No access Pages 277 - 280
About the Author No access Pages 281 - 282