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Modern Budget Forecasting in the American States
Precision, Uncertainty, and Politics
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Publisher:
2013
Summary
This book, by Michael J. Brogan, examines government budgeting through the lens of public budget forecast errors. In examining this aspect of the budgetary process, Brogan helps readers understand levels of political and financial risk that policymakers are willing to accept in estimating the likelihood of accurate budget projections. This title is noteworthy in its innovative, accessible approach to examining the budget process through an analysis of forecast errors. Unlike most public budgeting books, which focus primarily on the technical aspects of budgeting or on the politics of the budget process, this book bridges the technical and political aspects of budgeting, thereby providing a more comprehensive analysis of contemporary issues and research in public budgetary matters.
In light of the current financial crisis in the United States, this book is crucial for providing readers with a comprehensive review of the limits of budget projections and how political forces shape the forecasting process. Throughout the text, readers are presented with relevant state-specific mini cases. The mini cases highlight some of the difficulties in projecting future revenue and spending patterns, as well as the political conflict that can ensue. The empirical findings, mini cases, and arguments presented throughout this book are intended to empower readers, giving them the expertise needed to better understand how uncertainty in public budget forecasts affects the budget process. Ultimately, this knowledge can help citizens connect the financial management of a state with its governing patterns.
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Bibliographic data
Copyright year
2013
ISBN-Print
978-0-7391-6839-4
ISBN-Online
978-0-7391-6840-0
Publisher
Lexington, Lanham
Language
English
Pages
186
Product type
Book Titles
Table of contents
ChapterPages
Contents No access
Preface No access
Ch01. Introduction to the Public Budgeting Forecast Process No access
Ch02. The Process and Politics of Generating Budget Forecast Errors No access
Ch03. Inter-Temporal Variation, Fiscal Uncertainty, and State-Level Long-Term Revenue Budget Forecasts Errors No access
Ch04. Projecting Expenditures: Revenue Uncertainty, Public Choices, Political Institutions, Elections, and Forecast Errors No access
Ch05. Interpreting Budget Forecast Errors: Fiscal Shirking, Financial Uncertainty, and Public Opinion No access
Ch06. The Financial Consequences of State-Level Budget Forecast Errors No access
Ch07. The Electoral Consequences of Budget Forecast Errors No access
Ch08. Budget Forecasting in the States—Reforms, Institutions, Politics, and Uncertainty No access
