Iraq in Crisis

Anthony H. Cordesman; Sam Khazai

doi:10.5771/9781442228566

Summary

Iraq is a nation in crisis bordering on civil war. The country now faces growing violence, a steady rise in Sunni Islamist extremism, an increasingly authoritarian leader that favors Iraq’s Sunnis, and growing ethnic tension between Arabs and Kurds. The recent Iraqi election offers little promise that it can correct the corruption, the weaknesses in its security forces, and the critical failures in governance, economic development, and leadership. The problems Iraq faces in 2014 are a legacy of mistakes made during and after the U.S.-led invasion in 2003, but increasingly the nation is dealing with the self-inflicted wounds of its leaders who abuse human rights, repress opposing factions, and misuse the Iraqi police and security forces to their own end.

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Bibliographic data

Copyright year: 2014
ISBN-Print: 978-1-4422-2855-9
ISBN-Online: 978-1-4422-2856-6
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield, Lanham
Language: English
Pages: 390
Product type: Book Titles

1. Table of Contents No access
2. Acknowledgments No access
3. Executive Summary No access
1. Historical Background No access
2. The Iran-Iraq War No access
3. The 1991 Gulf War No access
4. The 2003 Invasion of Iraq No access
5. The Aftermath of the Invasion No access
6. 2007-2011: A Shift to More Realistic Goals No access
7. The Strategic Framework Agreement (SFA) and the US-Iraq Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) No access
8. The Steadily More Dominant Impact of Iraq’s Internal Political Divisions No access
1. The Challenges that Shape Iraq’s Violence No access
2. Analyzing Iraq’s Growing Levels of Internal Violence No access
3. 1. Divided Sunni Voices No access
  2. Harith al-Dari and the Association of Muslim Scholars (AMS) No access
  3. The Role of Jordan No access
  4. The Mixed Impact of the Syrian Civil War No access
  5. The Interaction Between Sectarian and Ethnic Violence No access
4. 1. The Other Limits to the Data On rising Violence No access
  2. The Rise in Violence in 2012-2013: How Much is Too Much? No access
5. Statistical Trends Versus Human Impacts No access
1. Quantifying the Trends in Iraq No access
2. Regional Patterns in Violence No access
3. 1. Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI)/Islamic State of Iran and Syria (ISIS) No access
  2. Other Violent Movements and Militias No access
1. Rising Numbers of Dead and Wounded No access
2. UN Interpretations of the Data No access
3. 1. Broad Estimates of Refugees No access
  2. Rising Trends at the End of 2013/Early 20145 No access
  3. Guessing at the Full Human Impact No access
4. Responsibility: State Abuses of Power versus the Continuing Role of Violent Extremist Groups No access
1. The Politics of Violence or the Violence of Politics? No access
2. The First Round of Iraqi Governments and Elections No access
3. The January 2009 Governorate Elections No access
4. The March 2010 Parliamentary Elections No access
5. Non-Government by Paralysis No access
6. The Erbil Agreement (or Lack Thereof) No access
7. 1. The Mutlaq Case No access
  2. The Hashimi Case No access
  3. The Usama Abdu’l Aziz al-Nujayfi Case No access
  4. The Rafi al-Issawi Case No access
8. The “Death” of the Erbil Agreement No access
9. Sect, Ethnicity, and the Challenge of Federalism No access
10. 1. Shi’ite versus Sunni Divisions in 2012 No access
  2. Steadily Growing Tensions in 2013 No access
  3. The Crisis in the West at the End of 2013 No access
11. 1. The Sunni Role and Movement Towards a National Government No access
  2. Kurdish Issues No access
  3. Shi’ite Unity No access
1. World Bank Governance Ranking No access
2. State Department Iraq Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2013 (issued February 2014) No access
3. The UN Analysis No access
4. Protests, Popular Dissatisfaction, and the Role of Politics No access
5. 1. The Corruption Crisis in Iraq No access
  2. Corruption and Popular Protests No access
  3. The September 2013 SIGIR Report No access
  4. Growing Corruption in the Security Services No access
  5. Corruption and the Iraqi Economy No access
  6. Overall Impact on Governance, Justice, Corruption, and the Security Services No access
6. The Challenge of Effective Governance No access
1. Demographics and Political Competition No access
2. 1. The US Opens Iraq to Iran No access
  2. Continuing Iranian and Iraqi Competition for Religious Influence No access
  3. Maliki’s Role in Dealing with Iran and the US No access
  4. The Sadrists No access
  5. SCIRI/ISCI No access
3. 1. The Impact of the US-Led Invasion No access
  2. “National” versus Shi’ite Leadership No access
  3. The Critical role of Sunnis in Iraqi Security and Stability No access
  4. The Cost of Limiting the Sunni Role and Political Influence No access
  5. Intra-Sunni Divisions: Al Qaeda in Iraq vs. Sunni Anti-Government Movement No access
4. 1. The Uncertain Impact of Creating the KRG No access
  2. Divisions and Unity Between the PUK and KDP No access
  3. The Uncertain Status of the Peshmerga No access
  4. Kurdish-Arab Tensions Since 2011 No access
  5. Iran and the KRG No access
1. US Official Views of the Al Qaeda Threat No access
2. Al Qaeda’s Growing Strength in 2013 No access
3. Al Qaeda/ISIS, Its Power Grab in Syria, and the January 2014 Crisis in Iraq No access
4. Making Counterterrorism an Aid to Terrorism? No access
1. 1. US State Department Annual Report on Terrorism No access
  2. Reporting in the Annual Calendar of the US National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) No access
2. 1. The Future Role of Iraq’s Other Violent Non-State Actors No access
3. 1. Iran’s Possible Role in Supporting Violent Extremism No access
  2. Iranian Political and Security Influence in Iraq No access
  3. The Al Quds Force in Iraq No access
  4. Iranian Operations in Iraq No access
4. Outside State Actors: Syria No access
5. Outside State Actors: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar No access
6. The Inactive Non-State Actor: Mujahedin-e Khalq Organization (MEK) No access
1. The Impact of A Destabilizing Early US Departure No access
2. 1. Iraqi Forces at the Time of Transition No access
  2. Iraqi Forces in 2013 No access
  3. Military Spending No access
  4. Force Strength No access
3. The Failure to Provide Iraq With Effective Forces for External Defense No access
4. 1. The Impact of Early US Departure No access
  2. The Uncertain Legacy of Trying to Impose a US Military Culture on Iraq No access
  3. Reliance on a Limited US Effort and a Small Office of Security Cooperation - Iraq (OSC-I) No access
  4. Cuts in US Security Assistance to Iraq in FY2014 No access
  5. The Role of US Arms Sales No access
5. 1. Iraqi Military Modernization and the US Role in Shaping the Iraqi Army No access
  2. Iraqi Military Modernization and the US Role in Shaping the Iraqi Air Force No access
  3. Iraqi Military Modernization and the US Role in Shaping the Iraqi Navy No access
  4. Military Training and Education No access
  5. Cooperation in Counter Terrorism No access
6. 1. US Role in Supporting the Iraqi Police Force and Ministry of Interior No access
  2. Iraqi Federal Police Service (IFP) No access
  3. Federal Intelligence and Investigative Agency (FIIA) No access
  4. Iraqi Police Service No access
  5. Iraqi Correctional Service No access
  6. Border Guards No access
  7. Iraqi Coast Guard No access
  8. General Commission for Customs No access
  9. Facilities Protection Service No access
  10. Oil Police No access
  11. Electrical Installation Police No access
  12. Railway Police No access
  13. The Iraqi National Intelligence Service (INIS) No access
  14. Ministry of National Security (MoNS) No access
  15. Office of Information and Security and Directorate General for Intelligence and Security (DGIS) No access
7. Peshmerga Forces and Intelligence services of Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) No access
8. Sunni Awakening Councils (Sons of Iraq - SOI) No access
9. The Iraqi Security Forces as the Threat Rather than the Solution No access
10. State Department Iraq Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2013 (issued February 2014) No access
11. 1. The Maliki Visit to Washington in October 2013 No access
  2. The December 2013 Crisis No access
  3. Choosing the Least Bad Option No access
1. A Petroleum Economy Limping Towards Progress No access
2. 1. Iraq’s Plans and Budgets No access
3. The Uncertain Impact of Growth No access
4. 1. Corruption and the Economy No access
  2. Other Barriers to Business and Growth No access
  3. Problems in Education and Health No access
  4. The Problem of State-Owned Enterprises No access
  5. Debt and Reparations No access
5. Agriculture and Water No access
6. The Uncertain Quality of US Aid and the Need to Focus on Advice and US Private Investment No access
7. Iran’s Growing Economic Role in Iraq No access
8. Options for Policy No access
1. The Challenge Posed by the “Resource Curse” No access
2. Iraq’s Petroleum Development goals No access
3. Iraq’s Current Energy Production and Potential No access
4. 1. The IEA Scenarios No access
  2. The EIA Scenarios No access
  3. The EIA Assessment of Key Risks No access
  4. Investment Barriers to Iraqi Petroleum Development No access
5. The Lack of Adequate Export Facilities No access
6. 1. Pipeline Issues No access
  2. Control of Key Reserve Areas and Tracts No access
  3. Independent KRG Ties to Foreign Oil Companies No access
7. Iran and Iraqi Petroleum Development No access
8. Options for Policy No access