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U. S. Officials and the Fall of the Shah
Some Safe Contraction Interpretations
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2012
Summary
Unlike the dominant trend in cognitive approach to foreign policy, the approach in this book is not guided by reflections in psychology. Like part of Jervis's work, it is inspired by reflections concerning the philosophy of science; yet not by Kuhn's or those of its most well-known critics, but by some more recent and formal reflections known as the AGM theory. The AGM theory, proposed in the 1980's by Alchourr-n, GSrdenfors, and Makinson, is the core of a most dynamic branch of logic, focusing on belief change. It has produced impressive formal results, with echoes in artificial intelligence, database management, and decision and game theory. This book shows how it can be used in political science. The book includes three parts. Part One is a twenty-page review of the AGM theory, avoiding a number of pitfalls, inaccuracies, and misunderstandings that are common elsewhere. Part Two is a review of U.S.-Iranian relations under the reign of the last shah, focusing on the last years of monarchy, and including an unconventional interpretation of U.S. intelligence performance in 1978. The essential part is Part Three, where an AGM model is tested, and intriguing results obtained in connection with U.S. perceptions of the Iranian revolution.
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Bibliographic data
Copyright year
2012
ISBN-Print
978-0-7391-3340-8
ISBN-Online
978-0-7391-3342-2
Publisher
Lexington, Lanham
Language
English
Pages
191
Product type
Book Titles
Table of contents
ChapterPages
Table of Contents No access
Preface No access
Acknowledgments No access
Introduction No access Pages 1 - 6
I. Concepts No access
11. First Constructions No access
111. Further Constructions No access
IV. U.S. Involvement in Iran, 1941 - 1968 No access
V. U.S. Reliance on the Shah, 1969-1976 No access
VI. End of an Alliance, 1977-1978 No access
VII. Choices No access
VIII. Sullivan's Opinions No access
IX. Safe Contraction Interpretations concerning Sullivan No access
X. Brzezinski's Opinions No access
XI. Safe Contraction Interpretations concerning Brzezinski No access
XII. Safe Contraction Interpretations concerning Ball No access
Conclusion No access Pages 173 - 176
References No access Pages 177 - 182
U.S. Government Documents No access Pages 183 - 186
