Tomorrow&#039;s Silk Road

Jacques Pelkmans; Joseph Francois

doi:10.5771/9781786607881

Summary

This CEPS book comprises a first-ever economic and regulatory analysis of a possible Free Trade Area (FTA) between China and the EU, whose design is supposed to be 'deep and comprehensive'. It provides an overview of the global economic environment in which EU-Chinese economic relations have developed in recent years, including global value chains linking the two economies. The substance of the FTA design is then elaborated in nine, largely empirical and technical chapters ranging from tariff analysis (at the 6- and 8-digit level) and technical barriers to trade, to services, government procurement and investment. A third part comprises a CGE-model-based empirical simulation of the economic effects on GDP per member state (and on China), bilateral trade in goods and services, wages for workers with three distinct skill-levels and a series of goods and services sectors.

The year-long study was led by Jacques Pelkmans of CEPS, and the research was carried out by a team of trade specialists at CEPS in partnership with another team of researchers led by Prof. Joseph Francois of the World Trade Institute (WTI) in Bern.

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Bibliographic data

Copyright year: 2018
ISBN-Print: 978-1-78660-787-4
ISBN-Online: 978-1-78660-788-1
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield, Lanham
Language: English
Pages: 325
Product type: Book Titles

1. TABLE OF CONTENTS No access
2. List of Figures No access
3. List of Tables No access
4. List of Abbreviations No access
5. Preface No access
Executive Summary No access Pages 1 - 32
Introduction No access Pages 33 - 34
1. 1. 1.1 The context for a free trade area study No access
  2. 1.2 Is there a case for an EU-China FTA? No access
2. 1. 2.1 Chinese weight as an EU trade partner: Anticipate 2030 No access
  2. 2.2 Competitiveness and reforms in the EU and China No access
  3. 2.3 Comparing China and the EU’s trade strategies: Multilateral, plurilateral and bilateral No access
3. 3. Bilateral economic relations: Trade and investments No access
4. 4. Global value chains: Significance for the EU and China No access
1. 5. What would an EU-China FTA look like? No access
2. 1. 6.1 Analysing bilateral trade and its sectoral composition No access
  2. 6.2 Industrial tariff profiles of the EU and China No access
  3. 6.3 Where China and the EU differ: Tariff peaks No access
3. 1. 7.1 Relevance of trade defence for an FTA No access
  2. 7.2 Recent bilateral application of trade defence No access
  3. 7.3 The 2017 revision of EU trade defence measures and the status of China No access
4. 1. 8.1 Bilateral agro-food trade and its composition No access
  2. 8.2 Tariff and TRQ barriers in bilateral agro-food trade No access
  3. 8.3 Tariffs peaks in agro-food No access
  4. 8.4 Tough barriers: Tariff rate quotas No access
5. 1. 9.1 Mapping bilateral TBTs and their scope No access
  2. 9.2 TBTs between China and the EU: Empirical evidence at sector and product levels No access
  3. 9.3 Transforming China’s technical regulation, standards and conformity assessment No access
  4. 9.4 Some inferences about lowering TBTs in an EU-China FTA No access
6. 1. 10.1 Market access barriers of the Chinese SPS regime No access
  2. 10.2 Concerns from China and WTO partners about EU SPS barriers No access
  3. 10.3 Lowering SPS barriers in an EU-China FTA No access
7. 1. 11.1 Introduction No access
  2. 11.2 Measuring the extent of market access in services: China and the EU No access
  3. 11.3 Sectoral services market access: China and the EU No access
  4. 11.4 Potential value added of an EU-China FTA, based on prior experiences No access
8. 1. 12.1 China’s offers to accede to the WTO GPA No access
  2. 12.2 Barriers to EU public procurement as seen by Chinese investors in Europe No access
  3. 12.3 Possible directions for EU-China negotiations on public procurement No access
9. 1. 13.1 Introduction No access
  2. 13.2 EU-China IP Dialogue No access
  3. 13.3 China’s IPR legislation and enforcement No access
  4. 13.4 IPR protection and enforcement measures in China’s FTAs No access
  5. 13.5 IPR protection and enforcement measures in EU FTAs No access
  6. 13.6 Geographical Indications No access
10. 1. 14.1 The SOE problem in China and early reforms No access
  2. 14.2 Reformed SOEs and barriers to market access No access
  3. 14.3 Can the EU and China reach an agreement on SOEs? No access
  4. 14.4 Competition policy No access
11. 1. 15.1 Why a CAI? No access
  2. 15.2 Why are the existing BITs insufficient? No access
  3. 15.3 Investment issues an EU-China CAI should address No access
  4. 15.4 EU approach to CAI No access
  5. 15.5 China’s approach to CAI No access
  6. 15.6 What’s next? No access
  7. 15.7 Policy options for an EU-China CAI: A review No access
  8. 15.8 Integrate CAI in FTA No access
1. 16. Introduction No access
2. 1. 17.1 Value added and trade linkages between China and EU No access
  2. 17.2 Trade in mass consumer goods No access
3. 18. Removing tariffs and reducing NTM costs in a China-EU FTA No access
4. 1. 19.1 A non-technical introduction of the model simulations No access
  2. 19.2 Simulating economic impacts of ambitious and modest FTAs No access
  3. 19.3 Results of the FTA simulation: Changes in GDP (in % and $) No access
  4. 19.4 Results of the FTA simulation: Changes in real wages for three skill groups No access
  5. 19.5 Results of the FTA simulation: Effects on trade No access
  6. 19.6 Strategies for adjustment to a China/EU FTA No access
1. 20. Policy implications of an EU-China free trade agreement No access
References No access Pages 288 - 296
Annex I. European TRQs No access Pages 297 - 302
Annex II. Public Procurement in China and the EU No access Pages 303 - 310
Annex III. Estimated Impacts of an FTA No access Pages 311 - 312
Annex IV. Total AVEs for NTBs for Goods and Services No access Pages 313 - 314
Annex V. Technical Overview for CGE Modelling No access Pages 315 - 325