Urban Decline and the Future of American Cities

Katharine L Bradbury; Anthony Downs; Kenneth A. Small

doi:10.5771/9780815719601

Summary

During the past two decades, most large American cities have lost population, yet some have continued to grow. Does this trend foreshadow the death” of our largest cities? Or is urban decline a temporary phenomenon likely to be reversed by high energy costs? This ambitious book tackles these questions by analyzing the nature and extent of urban decline and growth of large U.S. cities. It includes and integrates five substudies. The first examines urban decline and some of its long-run causes, and whether cities that are losing population are performing their economic and social functions less effectively. The second substudy is a multivariate analysis of factors associated with the growth and decline of 121 large U.S. cities and their metropolitan areas. Although its causes vary, urban decline appears closely related to processes that have both upgraded individual households and generated serious problems for city governments and poor neighborhoods. A third substudy shows that neighborhood decline is part of a systematic process related to the influx of poor households into metropolitan areas. Another substudy simulates five antidecline strategies in a single metropolitan area, that of Cleveland, Ohio, and finds that severe decline (occurring in about one-fourth of large U.S. cities) could be slowed, though not stopped by vigorous policies. From the last substudy it emerges that, even if gasoline prices rose to over $2 a gallon, resulting adjustments by commuters and firms would produce little net centralization of future urban developmentthough many older neighborhoods would probably be rehabilitated. The book concludes that further losses of population and jobs in most severely declining cities are unavoidable in the near future. Even Southern and Western cities, now growing fast, will find their rate of growth slowing as further annexation of surrounding territory is limited. The book ends with two chapters discussing policies designed both to help declining population and job losses and to minimize such loses in other cities.

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Bibliographic data

Copyright year: 2011
ISBN-Print: 978-0-8157-1053-0
ISBN-Online: 978-0-8157-1960-1
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield, Lanham
Language: English
Pages: 309
Product type: Book Titles

1. Contents No access
1. The Basic Nature and Extent of Urban Decline No access
2. The Causes of Urban Decline No access
3. Decline at the Neighborhood Level No access
4. How Future Trends Will Affect City Decline and Growth No access
5. Future Impacts of Higher Energy Costs on Urban Development No access
6. A Case Study of Anti-Decline Policies: Cleveland No access
7. Public Policies Concerning Urban Decline No access
1. Social Functions and Differentiating Traits of Urban Areas No access
2. Causal Relationships between Descriptive and Functional Decline No access
1. The Extent of Decline in Descriptive Terms No access
2. The Extent of Distress and Decline in Functional Terms No access
3. Intrametropolitan Disparity as an Element of Distress and Decline No access
4. Conclusions No access
5. Appendix: Descriptions of Indexes Used in This Chapter No access
1. Historic Trends and Their Influence No access
2. Causes of Urban Decline in Individual Areas No access
3. A Strategy for Empirical Testing No access
1. Decomposition of Total City Population Change No access
2. Testing the Theories No access
3. The Growth and Decline of SMSAs and Cities to Their SMSAs No access
4. Review of Implications for Theories of Decline No access
5. Conclusion No access
6. Appendix A: Regression Estimates and Discussion of Estimating Techniques No access
7. Appendix B: Derivation of Testable Hypotheses from Density Gradient Analyses No access
8. Appendix C: The Role of Industry Mix in Metropolitan Employment Change No access
1. Changes in City Population, 1970–75 No access
2. Changes in City Per Capita Income, 1970–75 No access
3. City Employment Growth, 1960–70 No access
4. Conclusion No access
1. How the American "Trickle-down" Process Copes with Rapid Population Growth No access
2. What Happens When Metropolitan-Area Population Growth Slows or Stops No access
3. Conclusion No access
1. An Approach to the Future of Urban Areas No access
2. Assessment No access
3. Appendix: Trends Relevant to the Future of Urban Areas No access
1. Dynamics of Urban Decline No access
2. Self-Reinforcing Elements No access
3. Self-Limiting Elements No access
4. Is Decline Reversible? No access
5. Neighborhood Decline and Revitalization No access
6. Future Problems in Declining Cities No access
7. Conclusions No access
1. Adjustment Mechanisms No access
2. High-Cost Scenario No access
3. Severe-Shortage Scenario No access
4. Conclusion No access
1. Recent Growth and Decline No access
2. Future Trends: Base Case Projections No access
3. Policy Impacts No access
4. Results No access
5. Conclusion No access
6. Appendix A: Some Assumptions Underlying the Estimates of City-Suburban Cost Differentials No access
7. Appendix B: Secondary Impacts No access
1. Why Public Policies Should Respond to Urban Decline No access
2. Removing Policy Biases against Big Cities No access
3. Regional Impacts of Policy Choices No access
4. Adapting to Lower Populations and Resources No access
5. Big-City Poverty, Diversity, and Local Governments No access
1. Directly Empowering Individuals and Households No access
2. Achieving Effective Scale for Recommended Policies No access
3. Conclusion No access
Appendix: Variable Definitions and Sources No access Pages 297 - 304
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7. G No access
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11. K No access
12. L No access
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