Long-term Energy Demand in the German Residential Sector

Rainer Elsland

doi:10.5771/9783845267487

Summary

This thesis deals with the topic of how technological knowledge declines over time and the resulting limitations of techno-economic energy demand models in anticipating future demand for energy in the long-term. Since this is a principle limitation of ex ante analyses, this deficiency has been discussed for some time, but so far no methodological solution has been developed. The study is the first to develop a concept that draws on a broad methodological basis from different scientific disciplines (energy modelling and innovation economics) to address this limitation. Applying the concept developed to a practical question – energy scenarios for the German household sector until 2050 – shows that integrating the decline in technological knowledge into answering it leads to interesting new insights.

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Bibliographic data

Copyright year: 2016
ISBN-Print: 978-3-8487-2631-8
ISBN-Online: 978-3-8452-6748-7
Publisher: Nomos, Baden-Baden
Language: English
Pages: 338
Product type: Book Titles

Titelei/Inhaltsverzeichnis No access Pages 1 - 37
1. 1.1 Background No access
2. 1.2 Problem definition No access
3. 1.3 Objective and procedure No access
1. 2.1 Overview of the chapter No access
2. 1. 2.2.1 Energy demand and drivers No access
  2. 2.2.2 Technological trends and relevant policies No access
3. 2.3 Ex ante analysis of residential energy demand No access
4. 1. 2.4.1 Introduction to modelling No access
  2. 2.4.2 Selection criteria for a suitable modelling approach No access
  3. 2.4.3 Characterisation of existing modelling approaches No access
  4. 2.4.4 Bottom-up modelling and selection of a suitable approach No access
5. 2.5 Existing models focussing on very long-term energy analysis No access
6. 2.6 Summary and research gap No access
1. 3.1 Overview of the chapter No access
2. 3.2 Introduction to the integrated modelling concept No access
3. 3.3 Framework conditions and concept requirements No access
4. 3.4 Hierarchical dimensions of the integrated modelling concept No access
5. 3.5 Concept structure and procedure No access
1. 4.1 Overview of the chapter No access
2. 4.2 Framework conditions and model requirements No access
3. 4.3 Modelling structure and procedure No access
4. 1. 1. 4.4.1.1 Introduction to innovation and diffusion modelling No access
    2. 4.4.1.2 Modelling innovation cycles No access
    3. 4.4.1.3 Modelling diffusion as an epidemic process No access
    4. 4.4.1.4 Modelling diffusion based on decision-making No access
  2. 4.4.2 Representation of the decreasing trend of investment costs No access
  3. 4.4.3 Representation of energy carrier price expectation No access
  4. 4.4.4 Representation of technology-related energy efficiency development No access
  5. 4.4.5 Representation of energy budget induced rebound effects No access
  6. 4.4.6 Representation of residual electricity demand No access
5. 1. 1. 4.5.1.1 Calculation of ownership rates No access
    2. 4.5.1.2 Calculation of end-use stock transformation No access
    3. 4.5.1.3 Calculation of specific energy demand No access
    4. 4.5.1.4 Calculation of residual electricity demand No access
  2. 1. 4.5.2.1 Calculation of useful energy demand per building segment No access
    2. 4.5.2.2 Calculation of building stock transformation No access
    3. 4.5.2.3 Calculation of final energy demand and useful energy demand coverage of installed ventilation systems No access
    4. 4.5.2.4 Calculation of stock transformation of heating systems No access
    5. 4.5.2.5 Calculation of restrictions of heating system diffusion beyond the system boundaries of energy demand models No access
  3. 4.5.3 Calculation of final energy demand No access
  4. 4.5.4 Validation of the model No access
6. 1. 4.6.1 Added value of the model No access
  2. 4.6.2 Opportunities for further research No access
1. 5.1 Overview of the chapter No access
2. 5.2 Framework conditions and model requirements No access
3. 1. 5.3.1 Comparison and selection of innovation measures No access
  2. 5.3.2 Critical discussion of patent applications as a measure of innovation No access
4. 5.4 Modelling structure and procedure No access
5. 1. 5.5.1 Development of a procedure for a patent-based concordance No access
  2. 1. 5.5.2.1 Classification of indicators based on patents No access
    2. 5.5.2.2 Selection of an indicator based on patents No access
    3. 5.5.2.3 Discussion of studies applying the technology-cycle-time indicator No access
6. 1. 1. 5.6.1.1 Concept development No access
    2. 5.6.1.2 Quantitative assessment No access
  2. 1. 5.6.2.1 Concept development No access
    2. 5.6.2.2 Quantitative assessment No access
  3. 1. 5.6.3.1 Concept development No access
    2. 5.6.3.2 Quantitative assessment No access
  4. 5.6.4 Validation of the model No access
7. 1. 5.7.1 Added value of the model No access
  2. 5.7.2 Opportunities for further research No access
1. 6.1 Overview of the chapter No access
2. 6.2 Framework conditions and model requirements No access
3. 6.3 Modelling structure and procedure No access
4. 1. 6.4.1 Representation of decomposed energy demand by effects No access
  2. 6.4.2 Representation of long-term energy demand trends No access
5. 1. 6.5.1 Decomposition analysis of empirical energy demand No access
  2. 6.5.2 Determination of explanatory variables No access
  3. 6.5.3 Discussion of alternative linear regression models and statistical testing methods No access
  4. 6.5.4 Extension of regression models to capture long-term elasticities No access
  5. 1. 6.5.5.1 Assignment of explanatory variables to decomposition effects No access
    2. 6.5.5.2 Selection of regression models No access
  6. 1. 6.5.6.1 Assignment of explanatory variables to decomposition effects No access
    2. 6.5.6.2 Selection of regression models No access
  7. 6.5.7 Calculation of final energy demand No access
  8. 6.5.8 Validation of the model No access
6. 1. 6.6.1 Added value of the model No access
  2. 6.6.2 Opportunities for further research No access
1. 7.1 Overview of the chapter No access
2. 1. 7.2.1 Framework conditions and requirements of model coupling No access
  2. 7.2.2 Structure and procedure of the model integration No access
  3. 7.2.3 Modelling the transition from a technology-based to an energy service-based representation of energy demand No access
  4. 7.2.4 Modelling the impact of the technology-cycle-time on energy efficiency development No access
  5. 7.2.5 Calculation of final energy demand No access
  6. 7.2.6 Plausibility check of model coupling No access
3. 1. 7.3.1 Added value of the integrated model No access
  2. 7.3.2 Opportunities for further research No access
1. 8.1 Overview of the chapter No access
2. 1. 1. 8.2.1.1 Scenario definition No access
    2. 8.2.1.2 Socio-economic, price and climate parameters No access
    3. 8.2.1.3 Techno-economic parameters No access
    4. 8.2.1.4 Energy service-related parameters No access
    5. 8.2.1.5 Technology-cycle-time No access
  2. 1. 8.2.2.1 Analysing energy demand based on the End-Use Model No access
    2. 8.2.2.2 Comparison of energy demand based on the End-Use Model and the Energy Service Model No access
    3. 8.2.2.3 Analysing energy demand based on the Integrated Demand Model No access
3. 1. 8.3.1 Definition No access
  2. 1. 8.3.2.1 Analysing the impact on energy demand of drivers essentially influencing technological knowledge No access
    2. 8.3.2.2 Analysing the impact on the technological knowledge stock of drivers essentially influencing technological knowledge No access
1. 1. 9.1.1 Recommendations to extend bottom-up models for the assessment of long-term scenarios by explicitly taking technological myopia into account No access
  2. 9.1.2 Implications of the newly developed concept for ex ante residential energy demand analysis No access
  3. 9.1.3 General limitations on the meaningfulness of bottom-up results due to technological myopia No access
2. 9.2 Critical reflections No access
3. 9.3 Outlook No access
10. Summary No access Pages 293 - 298
References No access Pages 299 - 338