Decline of Democracies: The Rise of Repressive Regimes

Dr. Gilbert Rüegg

doi:10.5771/9783748958079

Summary

How do modern democracies falter? This book examines the transformation toward repressive regimes using an innovative, systemic-cybernetic approach. Rather than relying on monocausal explanations, the author develops a model of nine theoretical axioms—including economic, cultural, media, and psychological drivers—that act as circular feedback loops accelerating democratic backsliding and shifts in the international system. This model is empirically validated through case studies covering Europe, the Americas, Africa, Central Asia, and the Middle East. Challenging classical transition theories, the work offers an anatomy of global erosion, provides paths to strengthen resilience, and is highly relevant for political and social scientists.

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Bibliographic data

Edition: 1/2026
Copyright Year: 2026
ISBN-Print: 978-3-7560-2554-1
ISBN-Online: 978-3-7489-5807-9
Publisher: Nomos, Baden-Baden
Language: English
Pages: 331
Product Type: Monograph

1. Iconographic Preface No access
2. Foreword No access
1. 1 Introduction: Crisis of Democracy or Return of Authority? No access
2. 1. 1. 2.1.1 Definition of the Term ’Democracy’ No access
    2. 2.1.2 Democratic Theories and Perspectives No access
    3. 2.1.3 Crisis of Democracy and Diagnoses of Crisis No access
3. 1. 3.1 Definitions and Distinctions from ‘Left’ and Liberal No access
  2. 1. 3.2.1 Causes, Mechanisms, and Manifestations under the Guise of Democracy No access
    2. 3.2.2 Interfaces in the Political Field: Right, Left, and Liberal Currents No access
4. 1. 4.1 Democracy Under Pressure: Why Rightward Shifts in Times of Crisis Threaten Institutional Stability and the Normative Order No access
  2. 1. 4.2.1 Democracy Crisis as a Cause of the Right-Wing Shift No access
    2. 4.2.2 Right-Wing Surge as a Cause of the Democratic Crisis No access
    3. 4.2.3 Introduction of the Approach of Dynamic Interactions No access
    4. 4.2.4 Causes and Causality Questions in the Light of Cybernetic Axioms No access
5. 1. 5.1 Methodology: Deduction as an Instrument of Political Analysis No access
  2. 1. 5.2.1 Field of Causation and Axiom 1: Economic Causes No access
    2. 5.2.2 Field of Causation and Axiom 2: Cultural Causes No access
    3. 5.2.3 Field of Causation and Axiom 3: Institutional Causes No access
    4. 5.2.4 Field of Causation and Axiom 4: Global Causes No access
    5. 5.2.5 Field of Causation and Axiom 5: Political Causes No access
    6. 5.2.6 Field of Causation and Axiom 6: Social Causes No access
    7. 5.2.7 Field of Causation and Axiom 7: Media and Discursive Causes No access
    8. 5.2.8 Field of Causes and Axiom 8: Psychological Causes No access
    9. 5.2.9 Field of Causation and Axiom 9: Crisis-related Causes (Trigger Events) No access
1. 1. 6.1 Introduction No access
  2. 6.2 Overview: Europe in the 2025 Democracy Index No access
  3. 1. 6.3.1 Economic Factors No access
    2. 6.3.2 Cultural Factors No access
    3. 6.3.3 Institutional Factors No access
    4. 6.3.4 Global Factors No access
    5. 6.3.5 Political Factors No access
    6. 6.3.6 Social Factors No access
    7. 6.3.7 Media Factors No access
    8. 6.3.8 Psychological Factors No access
    9. 6.3.9 Crisis Factors No access
  4. 1. 1. The Nordic Countries: The Vanguard of Democratic Quality No access
      2. Central Europe and the DACH Region: Institutional Anchors No access
      3. Western Europe: Executive Efficacy and Pluralist Dynamics No access
      4. Southern Europe: Consolidation and Pluralist Rebound No access
      5. The Special Case of France: The Executive-Centred Rebound No access
      6. Eastern Europe: Precursors of Democratic Resilience No access
      7. Systemic Evaluation via the Axioms of Democratic Crisis No access
    2. 1. Western Europe: Governance Challenges in Established Systems No access
      2. Central Europe: Reforms and Volatility in the Core No access
      3. Eastern Europe and the Baltic States: Consolidation under Geopolitical Strain No access
      4. Systematic Evaluation via the Axioms of Democratic Crisis No access
    3. 1. The European Union’s Solitary Hybrid State: Hungary No access
      2. The West Balkan Cluster: Fragmented Institutions and Ethnic Divides No access
      3. The Slippage Cohort: Moldova’s Democratic Fragility No access
      4. Systematic Evaluation via the Axioms of Democratic Crisis No access
    4. 1. The European Core Autocracies: Belarus and Russia No access
      2. The Kaukasus Frontier: Azerbaijan No access
      3. Systemic Evaluation via the Axioms of Democratic Crisis No access
  5. 1. 6.5.1 Representation of Cybernetic Feedback Loops No access
  6. 6.6 Summary No access
1. 1. 1. 7.1.1 Electoral Framework and Regional Frictions No access
    2. 7.1.2 Socio-Economic Fractures and Digital Media Dynamics No access
  2. 1. 7.2.1 Presidential Framework and Institutional Consensus No access
    2. 7.2.2 Socio-Economic Pressures and Modern Media Vectors No access
  3. 1. 7.3.1 Abolition of the Military and Executive-Legislative Frictions No access
    2. 7.3.2 Socio-Economic Vulnerabilities and Populist Discourse Vectors No access
2. 1. 1. 8.1.1 Fields of Causation and Systemic Deficits No access
    2. 8.1.2 Digital Media Ecosystem, Psychological Dynamics, and Triggers No access
  2. 1. 8.2.1 Executive-Legislative Gridlock and Judicial Bulwarks No access
    2. 8.2.2 Socio-Economic Disparities and Digital Discourse Fragmentation No access
  3. 1. 8.3.1 Permanent Crisis Economy and Executive Overreach No access
    2. 8.3.2 Media Delegitimisation, Affective Polarisation, and Macroeconomic Shocks No access
  4. 1. 8.4.1 Structural Imbalances: Corruption and Legislative Fragmentation No access
    2. 8.4.2 Media Polarisation: Public Security and Affective Personalism No access
  5. 1. 8.5.1 Structural Deficits: Chronic Insecurity and Executive-Legislative Frictions No access
    2. 8.5.2 Social Mobilisation: Communicative Polarisation and Security Shocks No access
  6. 1. 8.6.1 Judicial Reforms and the Mechanics of Institutional Transition No access
    2. 8.6.2 Socio-Economic Oligarchies and Digital Communicative Closure No access
3. 1. 1. 9.1.1 Judicial Politicisation and the Mechanics of Executive Dominance No access
    2. 9.1.2 Socio-Economic Divides and Digital Communicative Closure No access
  2. 1. 9.2.1 Causal Fields and Qualitative Democracy Deficits No access
    2. 9.2.2 Executive-Legislative Attribution and the Populist Trap No access
  3. 1. 9.3.1 Fields of Causation and Axioms: The Mechanics of Hollowing Out No access
    2. 9.3.2 Organised Crime, Selective Justice, and the Populist Feedback Loop No access
  4. 1. 9.4.1 Causal Fields and Structural Democracy Deficits No access
    2. 9.4.2 Political Instability, Executive Overreach, and Populist Currents No access
4. 1. 1. 10.1.1 Causal Fields and Systemic Democracy Deficits No access
    2. 10.1.2 Discursive Closure, Repression, and the Autocratic Feedback Loop No access
  2. 1. 10.2.1 Causal Fields and Systemic Democracy Deficits No access
    2. 10.2.2 Executive Dominance, Repression, and the Autocratic Feedback Loop No access
  3. 1. 10.3.1 Causal Fields and Systemic Democracy Deficits No access
    2. 10.3.2 Total Discursive Control, Global Decoupling, and the Autocratic Equilibrium No access
  4. 1. 10.4.1 Causal Fields and Structural Dissolution No access
    2. 10.4.2 Gang Sovereignty, International Inertia, and the Anarchic Feedback Loop No access
5. 1. 11.1 Cross-Regime Comparative Architecture and Cybernetic Interdependence No access
  2. 11.2 Discursive Closure, Exogenous Shocks, and the Nadir of State Failure No access
  3. 11.3 Policy Recommendations and Systemic Stabilisation Pathways No access
1. 1. 12.1 Africa’s Democratic Landscape in a Global Comparison No access
  2. 12.2 Analytical Framework and Hypotheses No access
2. 1. 1. 13.1.1 The Exceptionalist Baseline and Institutional Equilibrium No access
    2. 13.1.2 The Interplay of the Nine Axioms and Populist Undercurrents No access
3. 1. 1. 14.1.1 Cape Verde (7.65) No access
    2. 14.1.2 Botswana (7.43) No access
    3. 14.1.3 Namibia (6.42) No access
    4. 14.1.4 South Africa (6.40) No access
    5. 14.1.5 Lesotho (6.25) No access
  2. 1. 14.2.1 Ghana (6.21) No access
    2. 14.2.2 Malawi (6.12) No access
4. 1. 1. 15.1.1 Senegal (5.98) No access
    2. 15.1.2 Gambia (4.64) No access
    3. 15.1.3 Liberia (5.43) No access
    4. 15.1.4 Sierra Leone (4.70) No access
    5. 15.1.5 Benin (4.28) No access
    6. 15.1.6 Nigeria (4.11) No access
  2. 1. 15.2.1 Autocratic Backsliding in the East African Midfield No access
  3. 1. 15.3.1 Autocratic Backsliding in North Africa No access
5. 1. 1. 16.1.1 The Military Feedback Loop in the Francophone Sahel and East Africa No access
  2. 1. 16.2.1 Dynastic Stagnation in Central and East Africa No access
  3. 1. 16.3.1 The Optimisation of Electoral Autocracy and the Logic of the Iron Fist No access
  4. 1. 16.4.1 The Economisation of State Collapse and the Fragmentation of Power No access
6. 1. 1. 17.1.1 Full Democracies No access
    2. 17.1.2 Flawed Democracies No access
    3. 17.1.3 Hybrid Regimes No access
    4. 17.1.4 Authoritarian Regimes No access
  2. 17.2 Recommendations for African Countries No access
1. Introduction No access
2. 1. 1. 18.1.1 Methodological Basis of the Classification No access
    2. 18.1.2 Overview of the 14 States of the Middle East No access
    3. 18.1.3 Overview of Democratic Indicators No access
  2. 1. 18.2.1 Israel: Institutional Stability and Democratic Limitations No access
  3. 1. 18.3.1 Kuwait: Populist Polarisation and the Cybernetic Collapse of Rentier Hybridity No access
    2. 18.3.2 Turkey: Autocratic Consolidation and Competitive Illiberalism No access
  4. 1. 1. Lebanon: Confessional Paralysis and the Oligarchic Cartel No access
      2. Palestine: Institutional Bifurcation and Executive Hyper-Centralisation No access
      3. Iraq: The Muhasasa System and the Rule of Militia-Populists No access
    2. 1. Jordan: Geopolitical Rentierism and Managed Pluralism No access
      2. Qatar: Absolute Dynastic Monopolisation and Progressive Facade No access
      3. United Arab Emirates: Technocratic Authoritarianism and Managed Inclusivity No access
      4. Oman: Absolute Sultanism and Quietist Institutionalism No access
      5. Bahrain: Securitised Sectarianism and Majoritarian Repression No access
      6. Saudi Arabia: Hyper-Centralised Absolutism and Dynastic Modernisation No access
    3. 1. Egypt: Praetorian Authoritarianism and the Dictatorship of the Security State No access
      2. Iran: Theocratic Hardening and the Post-Khamenei Repression Dynamics No access
      3. Yemen: Fragmented Warlord Despotism and State Collapse No access
      4. Syria: The Assad Regime and the Uncertain Transition after Terror-Despotism No access
  5. 1. 18.5.1 Summary No access
    2. 18.5.2 Recommendations for Countries in the Middle East No access
3. 1. 19.1 Country-Specific Analysis No access
  2. 1. 19.2.1 Kyrgyzstan: Illiberal Populism and Managed Pluralism No access
  3. 1. 19.3.1 Summary No access
    2. 19.3.2 Recommendations for Systemic Reform No access
4. 1. 1. 20.1.1 The Ten Causal Fields: Drivers of Democratic Deficits in Russia No access
    2. 20.1.2 Russia’s Strategic Influence in Central Asia and the Middle East No access
  2. 1. 20.2.1 The Ten Causal Fields: Determinants of China’s Democratic Deficits No access
    2. 20.2.2 China’s Expanding Influence across Central Asia and the Middle East No access
  3. 20.3 Recommendations for the Middle East, Central Asia, and Russia–China No access
1. 1. 21.1 Empirical Confirmation of the Axioms in the Regions under Study No access
  2. 21.2 Interactions among the Fields of Causation: Dynamics and Feedback Loops No access
  3. 21.3 Revision and Expansion – Incorporation of Axiom 10 and Prioritisation No access
2. 1. 22.1 The Crisis of Normative Democratic Theory No access
  2. 22.2 Failure of Classical Theories of Transition No access
  3. 22.3 Theoretical Reorientation: From Democracy to Autocratisation Studies No access
3. 1. 23.1 Internal Reform Mechanisms: Strengthening Democratic Resilience No access
  2. 23.2 Societal Preconditions for Transformation No access
4. 1. Philosophical Outlook: On the Limits of Democracy No access
  2. Final Reflections No access
References No access Pages 307 - 330