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Influence and Escalation
Implications of Russian and Chinese Influence Operations for Crisis Management
Authors:
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Publisher:
2022
Summary
Technology-enabled influence operations, including disinformation, will likely figure prominently in adversary efforts to impede U.S. crisis response and alliance management in high-risk, high-impact scenarios under a nuclear shadow. Both Russia and China recognize their conventional military disadvantage vis-à-vis conflict with the United States. As a result, both nations use sub-conventional tactics and operations to support their preferred strategies for achieving favorable outcomes while attempting to limit escalation risks. Such strategies include an array of activities loosely identified as influence operations, focused on using and manipulating information in covert, deniable, or obscure ways to shape the strategic environment.
This report presents eight scenarios—four focused on Russia and four focused on China—that invite potential escalation risks and demonstrate how the tools and tactics of influence operations could be employed to challenge detection, response, and crisis management. It explores a range of potential escalatory pathways and destabilizing consequences if adversary influence operations engage strategic interests and targets in high-risk scenarios and identifies key takeaways and recommendations for policymakers to better identify and defend against adversary influence operations.
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Bibliographic data
Copyright year
2022
ISBN-Print
978-1-5381-4045-1
ISBN-Online
978-1-5381-4046-8
Publisher
Rowman & Littlefield, Lanham
Language
English
Pages
60
Product type
Book Titles
Table of contents
ChapterPages
CONTENTS No access
Executive Summary No access
Introduction No access Pages 1 - 1
1 No access Pages 2 - 4 Scope, Project Objective
2 No access Pages 5 - 10 Techniques, Influence Tactics, and Trends
3 No access Pages 11 - 18 The Information Ecosystem, Digital Influence Technologies
4 No access Pages 19 - 27 Exploring the Connection between Influence Operations, Escalation Risk
5 No access Pages 28 - 31 Recommendations, Key Findings
Appendix A: Russia-Focused Scenarios No access Pages 32 - 41
Appendix B: China-Focused Scenarios No access Pages 42 - 50
