This monograph generalises, and extends, the classic dynamic models in conflict analysis (Lanchester 1916, Richardson 1919, Boulding 1962). Restrictions on parameters are relaxed to account for alliances and for peacekeeping. Incrementalist as well as stochastic versions of the model are reviewed. These extensions allow for a rich variety of patterns of dynamic conflict. Using Monte Carlo techniques as well as time series analyses based on GDELT data (for the Ethiopian-Eritreian war, 1998–2000), we also assess the empirical usefulness of the model. It turns out that linear dynamic models capture selected phases of the conflict quite well, offering a potential taxonomy for conflict dynamics. We also discuss a method for introducing a modicum of (bounded) rationality into models from this tradition.
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Bibliographic data
Publication year
2021
Publication date
21.05.2021
ISBN-Print
978-3-8487-7156-1
ISBN-Online
978-3-7489-1208-8
Publisher
Nomos, Baden-Baden
Series
GIDS Analysis
Volume
5
Language
English
Pages
60
Product type
Book Titles
Table of contents
ChapterPages
Titelei/Inhaltsverzeichnis No access Pages 1 - 12
Chapter 1: Introduction No access Pages 13 - 16
Chapter 2: A general linear conflict model for the two-party case No access Pages 17 - 20
A. Richardson’s original equations No access
B. An incrementalist Richardson model No access
C. Probabilistic interaction No access
A. Extension of the basic model to three parties No access
I. Attenuating agents No access
II. Alliances No access
C. Second extension: a psychological reformulation of the Richardsonequations No access
D. Monte-Carlo simulations No access
I. Description of the data set No access
II. Time series analysis and the suitability of the accumulated Goldstein score No access
III. Structural model estimations No access
B. Re-estimating the Francisco (2009) data No access
I. The decision heuristic No access
II. Convergence to Nash equilibrium No access
I. The state equation No access
II. First example: the political business cycle No access
III. Second example: a dynamic rent-seeking model No access
C. Comments No access
Chapter 7: Conclusion No access Pages 55 - 56
Appendix : Programme listing No access Pages 57 - 58
Bibliography No access Pages 59 - 60
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