Presidential Swing States

Rafael Jacob; David Schultz

doi:10.5771/9781793614971

Summary

The 2020 US presidential race was one of the most hotly contested and contentious in recent American history. While the election produced the greatest turnout in American history and the highest percentage turnout in 60 years, the election still came down to a handful of swing states that ultimately decided the election. In their third edition of Presidential Swing States, Rafael Jacob and David Schultz examine the 2020 presidential election, keying in on the few critical states that actually decided the election and why. With cases studies written by prominent political scientists who are experts on these swing states, Presidential Swing States also explains why some states were swing states but no longer are, why some continue to be swing states, and what states beyond 2020 may be the future swing states that decide the presidency.

The book contains in-depth case studies of the swing-states and swing-counties that decide presidential elections in the United States. Students in classes on American Politics and Government, Parties, Campaigns and Elections, State Politics, and the Presidency will all be well-served by the analyses in this volume, as will journalists reporting on presidential elections, and the general public.

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Bibliographic data

Copyright year: 2022
ISBN-Print: 978-1-7936-1496-4
ISBN-Online: 978-1-7936-1497-1
Publisher: Lexington, Lanham
Language: English
Pages: 398
Product type: Edited Book

1. Contents No access
1. Note No access
1. 1. The Importance of Florida No access
  2. Florida and National Conventions No access
  3. New “Florida Man” as President No access
  4. 2020 Campaign in Florida No access
  5. Florida in the 2020 Presidential Polls No access
  6. Voters Decide Wedge Issues in State Amendments No access
  7. Florida as a Swing State in 2020 No access
  8. Florida in 2024 No access
  9. Note No access
  10. References No access
2. 1. From Silver Mines to Golden Knights No access
  2. The 2020 Presidential Election and the Three Nevadas No access
  3. 2020 Public Opinion in Nevada No access
  4. Conclusion No access
  5. Notes No access
  6. Bibliography No access
3. 1. Short History of a Swing State No access
  2. Democrats’ New Hampshire Road Map No access
  3. Granite State’s Changing Demographics No access
  4. 2016 Presidential Election: The Trump Effect in New Hampshire No access
  5. President Trump’s Approval in New Hampshire No access
  6. 2018 Midterms No access
  7. The 2020 New Hampshire Primaries No access
  8. Pandemic Voting No access
  9. The 2020 Campaign Season No access
  10. A Look Ahead to 2022 No access
  11. Notes No access
  12. Bibliography No access
4. 1. The Context of North Carolina No access
  2. The Context of 2020 No access
  3. The Inputs to the System Changed No access
  4. The Outputs Were Similar No access
  5. The Political Geography of the 2020 Vote No access
  6. Swing Counties No access
  7. Looking Forward No access
  8. Bibliography No access
5. 1. 1. An Inch to the Right, An Inch to the Left No access
    2. Losing the Title Fight, but Winning the Undercard No access
    3. Pandemics and Processes No access
  2. Conclusion: Looking Ahead No access
  3. Notes No access
  4. Bibliography No access
6. 1. Introduction No access
  2. Background No access
  3. 1. 1. Republican One-Partyism, 1855–1934 No access
      2. Third-Party Politics, 1934–1946 No access
      3. Two-Party Competition, 1946–Present No access
    2. 1. A Closer Look at Gubernatorial Elections No access
      2. National Elections No access
    3. The Future of Presidential Politics in the Badger State No access
  4. Bibliography No access
1. 1. Is Iowa Still a Swing State? No access
  2. 1. Iowa’s Precinct Caucuses No access
    2. Redistricting No access
    3. “No-Party” Voters No access
  3. Political Geography and Competitiveness No access
  4. What Does the Future Hold? No access
  5. Notes No access
  6. Bibliography No access
2. 1. 1. 1. Shifts in Presidential Votes in Maine Counties and Congressional Districts No access
      2. Presidential Voting within Congressional Districts No access
      3. Issue Votes and Representation in Maine’s Congressional Districts No access
    2. Exit Poll Data No access
    3. Ranked Choice Voting and the Presidential Election in Maine No access
  2. Conclusion No access
  3. Notes No access
  4. Bibliography No access
3. 1. The Context of Minnesota Politics No access
  2. What Happened in 2016 No access
  3. 1. The Pandemic Strikes No access
    2. George Floyd and the Aftermath No access
    3. General Election No access
  4. Conclusion No access
  5. Bibliography No access
4. 1. What Is Ohio? No access
  2. 1. Choosing Your Voters No access
    2. The Challenge Ahead No access
  3. Notes No access
  4. Bibliography No access
5. 1. 1. 1. Voter Turnout No access
      2. Trump’s Shrinking Margins No access
      3. The Pivot Counties Didn’t Pivot Back No access
    2. 1. Trump Loses the Suburbs and the Population Centers No access
  2. Conclusion No access
  3. Notes No access
  4. Bibliography No access
1. 1. Arizona’s Presidential Vote History No access
  2. Arizona’s Presidential Nominees No access
  3. 1. State Immigration Law No access
    2. Martin Luther King Holiday No access
    3. Sheriff Joe Arpaio No access
    4. Arizona Women in Public Office No access
    5. Tucson Shooting in 2011 No access
    6. U.S. Senators from Arizona Breaking from Party Norms No access
    7. Auditing the 2020 Presidential Vote in Arizona No access
    8. Voter Registration No access
  4. Composition of the Electorate No access
  5. Political Geography No access
  6. Competitive Presidential Campaigns in Arizona’s Future? No access
  7. Bibliography No access
2. 1. Political Background No access
  2. Demographic Changes Reignite Political Competitiveness No access
  3. Democrats’ Hope for a Rebirth Sets Up a Presidential Swing No access
  4. 1. The Primary No access
    2. The General Election No access
  5. 1. Georgia’s Regional Swings No access
    2. The Preferences of Georgia’s Voters No access
    3. Motivation to Participate No access
  6. Remarks on the 2020 U.S. Senate Elections No access
  7. Conclusion No access
  8. Notes No access
  9. References No access
3. 1. 1. State and Congressional Votes No access
    2. The Non-partisan Unicameral Legislature No access
    3. Unified by Party, Ideologically Divided No access
    4. Splitting the Electoral Votes No access
    5. The 2008 Election and the Aftermath No access
  2. 1. Nebraska’s Economy and Demographics No access
    2. Voter Registration No access
  3. Explaining the 2020 Election No access
  4. Moderate Preferences Remain No access
  5. Conclusion No access
  6. Bibliography No access
4. 1. 1. A Swing State Electoral System No access
    2. Party Balance in Swing States No access
    3. Pure Independents No access
    4. Late Deciding Voters in Swing States No access
  2. Conclusion: Can Swing States Contribute to Political Instability? No access
  3. Notes No access
  4. Bibliography No access
Index No access Pages 375 - 392
About the Contributors No access Pages 393 - 398