South Africa&#039;s Reintegration into World and Regional Markets: Trade Liberalization and Emerging Patterns of Specialization in the Post-Apartheid Era

Dr. Regine Qualmann

doi:10.5771/9783845205922

Summary

Der Welthandel ist für Entwicklungsländer Chance und Risiko zugleich. Die Handelstheorie verspricht positive Effekte für den Fall der handelspolitischen Öffnung eines Landes, doch der empirische Befund ist hier weniger eindeutig. Das vorliegende Buch setzt sich am Beispiel der südafrikanischen Handelsliberalisierung in den neunziger Jahren umfassend mit der Frage auseinander, wie sich die Außenöffnung auf das Spezialisierungsmuster des Landes auswirkt. Würden sich beschäftigungsintensive Branchen tatsächlich besser profilieren können und damit zum Abbau der Arbeitslosigkeit und generell zum gesellschaftlichen Umbau nach der Apartheid-Ära beitragen? Dies wäre jedenfalls der aus handelstheoretischer Sicht erwartete Effekt.

Die empirische Analyse zeigt auf, dass die handelspolitische Öffnung den Strukturwandel in den neunziger Jahren wesentlich beschleunigt hat. Anhand quantitativer Indikatoren werden die Veränderungen und positiven Tendenzen abgeleitet, jedoch auch auf die Wachstumsbarrieren verwiesen. Das neue Spezialisierungsmuster Südafrikas ist in wachsendem Maße von Branchen mittlerer Kapital- und Technologieintensität geprägt und wird insofern tendenziell mehr, jedoch zunehmend besser qualifizierte Arbeitskräfte absorbieren – und die sind weiterhin knapp. Die Arbeit macht auf anschauliche Weise deutlich, dass die Verknüpfung von theoretischen und empirischen Ansätzen zur Erklärung handelspolitischer Effekte verbesserungsbedürftig ist, und entwickelt dazu einige erste Antworten.

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Bibliographic data

Edition: 1/2008
Copyright Year: 2008
ISBN-Print: 978-3-8329-2995-4
ISBN-Online: 978-3-8452-0592-2
Publisher: Nomos, Baden-Baden
Series: Entwicklungstheorie und Entwicklungspolitik
Volume: 3
Language: English
Pages: 206
Product Type: Monograph

Titelei/Inhaltsverzeichnis No access Pages 2 - 12
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Abbreviations No access Pages 13 - 14
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Summary No access Pages 15 - 22
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1. 1. Overview of the Economy and Recent Economic Policy No access Pages 23 - 32
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  2. Problem Statement, Objectives and Structure of the Analysis No access Pages 32 - 34
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2. 1. Authors:
    1. Sectoral Differences of Tariff Reductions No access
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    2. Effective Rates of Protection No access
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    3. Trade-related Measures No access
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    1. Regional Integration in SADC No access
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    2. The Bilateral Trade Agreement with the EU No access
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  3. Conclusions on the Implications of Recent Shifts in Trade Policy for the Pattern of Trade No access Pages 47 - 48
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3. 1. Recent Shifts in the Geographical Distribution and Composition of Trade No access Pages 48 - 54
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  2. Inhibited Trade in the Apartheid Era No access Pages 54 - 59
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  3. Indications of Increasing Trade Openness and Structural Shifts in the Post-Apartheid Period: Descriptive Evidence No access Pages 59 - 63
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  4. Conclusions from the Descriptive Evidence No access Pages 63 - 64
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1. Introduction No access Pages 65 - 67
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2. 1. The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Relative Factor Prices No access Pages 67 - 73
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  2. Authors:
    1. Sector-Biased Technological Differences No access
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    2. Specific Factors No access
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    3. Complete Specialization No access
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  3. Trade Openness, Wages and the Case of a Non-Clearing Labour Market No access Pages 75 - 80
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  4. More Factors, More Goods, More Countries No access Pages 80 - 84
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  5. Conclusions and Implications of Comparative Advantage Theory No access Pages 84 - 85
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3. 1. Economies of Scale, Monopolistic Competition, and Market Segmentation No access Pages 85 - 88
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  2. Intra-Industry Trade and Vertical Specialization: The Role of Factor Endowments Again No access Pages 88 - 90
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  3. Intra-Industry Trade, Trade Liberalization and the Labour Market No access Pages 90 - 91
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  4. Conclusions and Implications of the New Trade Theory No access Pages 91 - 92
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4. 1. Trade Diversion, Trade Creation and Beyond No access Pages 92 - 96
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  2. Different Types of Trading Blocs and Potential Implications of 'Hub-and-Spoke' Arrangements No access Pages 96 - 97
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  3. The Potential of Regional Spill-Over Effects No access Pages 97 - 99
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  4. Free Trade Arrangements and Regional Trade Integration: Implications of Theory No access Pages 99 - 100
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5. Hypotheses for the Empirical Analysis: What Theory Predicts No access Pages 100 - 103
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1. Introduction No access Pages 104 - 105
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2. 1. Background No access Pages 105 - 106
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  2. Theoretical Backing of the Gravity-Approach No access Pages 106 - 107
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  3. Recent Applications of the Gravity Model and Implications for the Present Analysis No access Pages 107 - 111
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    1. Estimation Results No access
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    2. Post-Trade Simulation and Predictions from the Gravity Model No access
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    3. Implications from the Model Estimations and Conclusions No access
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3. 1. The Changing Factor Intensity of South Africa's Pattern of Trade and Specialization No access Pages 128 - 134
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  2. Authors:
    1. The Composition of Trade by Broad Commodity Groups No access
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    2. Trade in Manufactures by Factor-Usage and Trading Partners No access
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  3. Authors:
    1. General Approach and Findings No access
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    2. Revealed Comparative Advantage in Manufacturing No access
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    3. Conclusions and Limitations of the Approach No access
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    1. Empirical Measure and General Findings No access
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    2. Levels of IIT in Bilateral Trade and in a Regional Perspective No access
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    3. Conclusions and Implications for the Emerging Pattern of Intra-Industry Trade No access
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4. 1. Stylised Facts on Trade and Production in the SADC Region No access Pages 159 - 160
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  2. Recent Shifts in the Regional Pattern of Trade and Specialization No access Pages 160 - 163
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  3. Trade Creation, Trade Diversion, and Potential Dynamic Effects of Trade Agreements: Review of Previous Literature and Implications No access Pages 163 - 167
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  4. The Role of Comparative Advantages, Scale Economies, and Implications for the Location of Industries No access Pages 167 - 169
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  5. Implications of South Africa's Free Trade Agreements with SADC and the EU No access Pages 169 - 171
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1. Summary of Findings on South Africa's Emerging Pattern of Trade and Specialization No access Pages 172 - 176
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2. Implications of the Emerging Pattern of Specialization for the Labour Market No access Pages 176 - 178
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3. Policy Implications and Outlook No access Pages 178 - 180
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Bibliography No access Pages 181 - 196
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Annex No access Pages 197 - 206
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