Do You Believe in Polls After All? An Experimental Study on Credibility in Political Opinion Polls

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Cover of Volume: M&K Medien & Kommunikationswissenschaft Volume 73 (2025), Issue 4
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M&K Medien & Kommunikationswissenschaft

Volume 73 (2025), Issue 4

Authors:
Publisher
Nomos, Baden-Baden
Copyright Year
2025
ISSN-Online
2942-3317
ISSN-Print
1615-634X

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Open Access Full access

Volume 73 (2025), Issue 4

Do You Believe in Polls After All? An Experimental Study on Credibility in Political Opinion Polls

Authors:
ISSN-Print
1615-634X
ISSN-Online
2942-3317
Preview:

This study examines the factors influencing the perceived credibility of political opinion polls in Austria. Using a 3x2 between-subjects design, we conducted an online experiment with 1,600 participants, quota-sampled to match key demographic characteristics of the Austrian population (age, gender, and federal state). The design was validated through an a priori power analysis, indicating a robust 95 % statistical power. Mean comparisons revealed no significant differences in poll credibility across media source conditions; however, perceived competence and warmth significantly mediated this relationship. The public service broadcaster (ORF) was rated as more competent and warmer than both the tabloid medium (OE24) and the control group. Interestingly, providing detailed survey information reduced perceived poll credibility, highlighting the need for improved poll literacy. Voting intention (motivated reasoning) and perceived media competence emerged as strong predictors of poll credibility. This study offers novel insights into the credibility of political polls from a Central European perspective.

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