@article{2025:woschnagg:do_you_bel,
title = {Do You Believe in Polls After All? An Experimental Study on Credibility in Political Opinion Polls},
year = {2025},
note = {This study examines the factors influencing the perceived credibility
of political opinion polls in Austria. Using a 3x2 between-subjects
design, we conducted an online experiment with 1,600 participants,
quota-sampled to match key demographic characteristics of the Austrian
population (age, gender, and federal state). The design was validated
through an a priori power analysis, indicating a robust 95 %
statistical power. Mean comparisons revealed no significant
differences in poll credibility across media source conditions;
however, perceived competence and warmth significantly mediated this
relationship. The public service broadcaster (ORF) was rated as more
competent and warmer than both the tabloid medium (OE24) and the
control group. Interestingly, providing detailed survey information
reduced perceived poll credibility, highlighting the need for improved
poll literacy. Voting intention (motivated reasoning) and perceived
media competence emerged as strong predictors of poll credibility.
This study offers novel insights into the credibility of political
polls from a Central European perspective.},
journal = {M&K Medien & Kommunikationswissenschaft},
pages = {567--587},
author = {Woschnagg, Florian and Karmasin, Matthias},
volume = {73},
number = {4}
}