The Balkan route: towards an assessment of the impact of migration in Serbia and Croatia

This article describes the flow of migrants towards the EU and seeks to provide a preliminary assessment of the impact of such flows on the economies of Croatia and Serbia, two countries on the route but not necessarily destination countries in their own right, and whose economies are themselves still fragile and in transition owing to their own recent histories. The authors provide a brief recent history of migration towards the EU before describing some of the salient features of the economies of western Balkans countries, with a particular focus on Croatia and Serbia. The western Balkans in general shows growth, but there also exist some negative social consequences in terms of low wages, skills loss through emigration, and unemployment. Aspects of the character of the flow of migrants are different in Serbia than in Croatia but, in both, the number of migrants seems - on the basis of official figures - to be declining. Consequently, the impact of migration is likely to be limited while the economies themselves demonstrate sufficient absorption capacity as a result of the changes they are undergoing.