›Und ewig grüßt das Murmeltier‹ – Mindestlohnforschung im Denkstilzwang

Before the introduction of a nationwide minimum wage in Germany in 2015, German labor market economists largely agreed that this ‚social experiment‘ would result in significant job losses. However, accompanying research on the introduction of the minimum wage was unable to confirm the predicted job losses and, as is the case everywhere where minimum wages exist and their effects are researched, had to admit to the ‚elusive nature of the employment effect‘ in Germany as well. This article traces the discussion surrounding the introduction of the minimum wage and analyzes the scientific community’s reaction to the deviation of actual employment trends from model-based forecasts — which can be understood in scientific theory as an ‚anomaly‘ or ‚crisis‘ — on the basis of Fleck’s theory of thinking styles. To this end, a distinction is made between two phases — the phase of minimum wage introduction and the phase of drastic minimum wage increases in 2022 — in order to examine learning processes on the one hand and the resilience of a prevailing paradigm on the other.