Realismus als Theorie und Heuristik

For much of German politics and political science, the Russian attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, came as an unexpected shock. At the same time, the war seemed to confirm core realist messages, such as Russia's stated goal of using force to prevent Ukraine's future NATO membership. As a result, prominent commentators lamented prejudices against realism in Germany. Indeed, by international standards, realism is underrepresented in German IR research. The article argues that an ideal-typical distinction between realist theory and realist heuristics resolves wide areas of this realism controversy. In this regard, the article exemplifies that even minimalist models of realist theory can provide important explanatory contributions to core issues of Ukrainian-Russian-German security relations. The article also demonstrates to what extent atheoretical realist heuristics can lead to empirically false, only supposedly authoritative, and politically problematic assumptions about Ukrainian-Russian-German relations.